344
FXUS66 KLOX 011800
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1000 AM PST Sun Mar 1 2026

UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...01/259 AM.

Steady cooling trend through Monday with some low clouds and dense
fog developing. Gusty west to north winds will form this afternoon
and continue through early Tuesday. Widespread moderate to
locally strong winds northwest to northeast likely Wednesday
through Saturday, with possible showers over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...01/259 AM.

At upper levels, a trough will swing through California fairly
quickly today, moving east out of California by Monday evening.
This trough will help facilitate a fairly dramatic cooldown
region- wide, with further cooling occurring Monday as the trough
moves through the state. By Monday, high temperatures in the high
60s to mid 70s will be common across Southwest California. As
the trough swings through Monday, southwest flow will turn sharply
northwest, save for localized northeast winds across Santa
Barbara and San Luis Obispo interior mountains. There may be some
light precipitation on the north slopes of northern Los Angeles
and Ventura County at the border of Kern County with the upslope
flow. Then fairly weak offshore flow, with some localized areas of
25-35 mph, will take over on Tuesday as the trough begins to
weaken near the Rockies. Offshore flow combined with a weak pop up
ridge will contribute to a few to several degrees of warming,
with the San Fernando Valley potentially touching the low 80s
again.

A wind advisory for Sundowner Winds has been issued for this
evening through early Tuesday morning for southwestern Santa
Barbara County. A brief lull in the winds is likely Monday morning
through early afternoon, but localized gusts to 45 mph may still
occur during this period. While winds across the Antelope Valley
and adjacent foothills do not look like they will reach advisory
levels today, there is a moderate chance that the northwest to
northeast flow Monday will be strong enough to warrant widespread
wind advisories through at least late Monday night across northern
Los Angeles County (including the Antelope Valley & adjacent
foothills), northern Ventura County Mountains, as well as the
eastern Santa Ynez and interior mountains of Santa Barbara County.

A dense fog advisory has been issued for the Central Coast
through later this morning as the shallow marine inversion is
keeping the newly formed marine layer at the surface, producing
visibility less than  mile. While low clouds and fog are forecast
to expand to Los Angeles County through later this morning,
confidence is fairly low in where, when, and even if (they
develop). A more expansive blanket of low clouds will likely
return with higher ceilings and thus visibility as the trough and
onshore flow will work to lift the clouds higher. Marine layer
clouds will likely breach the skies of coastal valleys tonight
into Monday morning.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...01/259 AM.

Although the synoptic picture remains fairly complex, there is
much better agreement now between the EC and the GFS. A trough
will swing into the West Coast on Wednesday, moving east into the
Great Basin by Thursday. After stalling over the Western CONUS,
the trough begins to detach itself from the main upper level flow,
cutting off and swinging to the southwest into SoCal late Friday
into Saturday. Northerly winds will begin to increase and become
widespread through the day on Wednesday, with advisory level winds
looking likely at this point, especially across higher
elevations. There is even a low risk for high elevation warning
level winds late Wednesday into Thursday.

Northerly winds will strengthen come Friday as the upper low
detaches and moves across SoCal. Winds will peak sometime Friday
through Saturday as upper level support lines up well with the
surface level winds, allowing for winds to mix down to the
surface. While widespread advisory level winds appear likely at
this pointeven at low elevations, higher terrain areas are at
risk for damaging, warning level winds.

This system is quite moisture starved (PWATs less than  inch),
so any significant precipitation looks highly unlikely at this
point. However, PWATs are forecast to increase to around  of an
inch late next weekend into the early second week of March as the
upper low siphons some moisture from the south. Still, however,
most ensemble members are dry or show very inconsequential precip
totals.

Their AI counterparts have pretty solid agreement with each
other, but they both differ slightly from the non AI versions. In
this case, the AI models keep the low more to the south and east,
which would result in weaker winds. Time will tell whether the
legacy or new-age models perform better in this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1759Z.

At 1651Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. There was a surfaced
based inversion with a top at 2200 ft and a temperature of 22 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).

Moderate to low confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of CIG/VSBY
restrictions may be off +/- 3 hours and flight minimums off by one
or two categories.

KLAX...Fair confidence in CIG forecast. Arrival and Clearing
times of LIFR to IFR (003-007) may be off +/- 3 hours, with a 30%
chance CIGs do not develop. High confidence in wind forecast with
no significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period, except for
a 20% chance of V/LIFR conditions from 02/10 to 02/17Z. No wind
impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.MARINE...01/827 AM.

For the Outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds
will continue across the waters south of Point Conception through
Monday. These winds will increase in coverage and speed. Local
gusts to GALE force (35 kts) is possible Monday afternoon/eve near
the Channel Islands. The axis of strongest winds will shift
westward and expand to the north during this time frame.
Resulting in low- end SCA winds across northern waters. SCA level
NW winds of 20-30 kts will be common across all Outer Waters by
Tuesday evening. Winds will become strongest Wednesday morning
through late Thursday night, especially during the afternoon/eve
hours. During this period, there is a 60% chance of GALES and 30%
chance for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast. There is
a non- zero chance for Storm Force winds, but more likely outcome
would be moderate to high end GALES. SCA winds will likely linger
through the weekend. SCA seas expected Wednesday through possibly
Saturday morning.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, SCA level W winds
up to 25 kt expected across the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon.
By the evening, these winds will expand to include much of the
waters adjacent to the Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Winds will
increase on Monday, especially across the SB Channel where there
is a 50-60% chance of low-end GALES during the afternoon/eve hours
focused near the Channel Islands. Tuesday looks to be the calmest
day where winds could drop below SCA levels for much of the waters
excluding western portion of the SB Channel. Wednesday afternoon
through Friday morning SCA winds are likely across the SB Channel.
There is a moderate chance (40%) of Wednesday afternoon/eve across
western portion of the SB Channel. Offshore flow tilts more from
the east starting Friday thus waters typically impacted by Santa
Ana Winds will need to keep in mind for more SCA winds potential
into Weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM PST this
      morning for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory now in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PST Tuesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Monday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late
      Monday night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PST Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST
      Tuesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BL
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...BL

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office