953
FXUS66 KLOX 181208
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
508 AM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...17/821 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected into the weekend, though a
cooling trend will begin Sunday as a low pressure system
approaches. Rain chances will begin as early as Monday night along
the Central Coast and Tuesday in Los Angeles.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/355 AM.

Another warm day is expected today, with temperatures increasing
by a few degrees compared to yesterday, though high clouds in the
area may somewhat moderate daytime heating. Highs will be about 6
to 12 degrees above normal, with widespread highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Below advisory level east winds (25 to 35 mph
gusts) are expected to redevelop across the typical Santa Ana Wind
Prone areas of LA and Ventura Counties through this morning.
These winds and a generally warmer airmass aloft will yield the
modest warming trend for today.

Sunday and Monday, temperatures will cool a couple degrees each
day, as a cutoff low approaches the region. 500 mb heights are
expected to fall and onshore flow will increase to moderate
strength during the afternoon. Marine layer stratus is likely to
increase at this time as well. As the center of the low travels
farther south along the California Coast, light rain will become
possible for northwestern San Luis Obispo County Monday evening,
with chances spreading south to Santa Barbara County Monday night.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...18/418 AM.

Monday night through Wednesday, a cutoff low is expected to scoop
across the state, with the center of the low remaining north of
the Bay Area. Rain is near certain for San Luis Obispo and Santa
Barbara Counties between Monday night and Wednesay. Timing
continues to be uncertain, but Tuesday is the most likely day for
rain overall. For Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, there is
around a 50-70% chance of some rain, though totals are likely to
be much lighter compared to up north. Exact rain amounts are
difficult to narrow down at this point especially for the
northern counties. Across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
Counties, between 0.25 to 1.0 inches are likely, and for Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties between 0.1 to 0.5 inches are likely.
There are some ensemble members that show 2+ inches for the
Central Coast, which may occur if the trajectory of the center of
the low drops farther to the south. There is also a small chance
for thunderstorms and heavier rain showers/rates for San Luis
Obispo County and northern Santa Barbara County on Tuesday.

Gusty winds are expected with the storm, especially across the
coasts, mountains, and deserts. Winds will be greatest on Tuesday
evening along the Central Coast (southerly), and Wednesday evening
for Ventura and Los Angeles Counties (westerly).

&&

.AVIATION...18/1207Z.

At 07Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep, with an
inversion up to 1100 feet with a maximum temperature of 19 C.

High confidence for TAFs, except moderate confidence for KLAX and
KLGB that may (10-20% chance) see brief MVFR conditions from
14-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in TAF. There is a slight
(10%) chance of MVFR conditions from 15Z-17Z. The east wind
component is not expected to exceed 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...18/356 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds today,
followed by lighter winds through Sunday. An approaching cold
front has a small chance of producing SCA-level southerly winds,
along with a chance of showers between Monday evening and Tuesday
morning. Wednesday into Wednesday night, increasing NW flow is
forecast, with a good chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, fairly
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels,
however an approaching cold front will bring increasing southerly
winds, along with a chance for showers between Monday evening and
Tuesday morning. Increasing NW winds expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with SCA winds possible by the evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. From Point Mugu to Malibu there
is a a low chance (10%) of SCA gusts nearshore below any
canyons/passes this morning. This afternoon through Tuesday,
moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
criteria for all southern Inner Waters. Winds will begin to
increase of Tuesday from the NW, with SCA speeds possible by
Wednesday afternoon or evening

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office