140
FXUS66 KLOX 011018
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
318 AM PDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...01/239 AM.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected through this weekend,
with potential for significant heat impacts. Some cooling is
expected next week, but temperatures will remain above normal.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected at many of the
beaches this weekend, as a result of swells from a tropical
cyclone located west of Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...01/318 AM.

The predicted hot weather became reality Friday for most areas
more than 10-15 miles from the ocean. The hottest area outside of
the deserts was the western San Fernando Valley where highs were
between 100 and 108. Surprisingly no records were set yesterday.
However, we get another chance for that today as gradients are
still trending offshore and 500mb heights are still near 600dam.
Most models are indicating another 1-3 degrees of warming today
which could push Woodland Hills to 110 and Downtown LA to 95.
There is a still a shallow marine layer near the coast which will
provide some relief there, and inland temperatures will reach
their peak this afternoon before highs drop 2-4 degrees Sunday.

Here`s a quick summary of some record highs for today:

Burbank: 105 in 1980
Downtown LA: 99 in 1959
Long Beach: 100 in 1959
LAX: 89 in 1959
Long Beach: 100 in 1959
Palmdale: 110 in 1993
Camarillo: 94 in 1930
Santa Barbara: 87 in 1947
Santa Maria: 89 in 1993
Paso Robles: 112 in 1993

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...01/316 AM.

The slow cooling trend will continue through Monday then basically
flat lines the rest of next week at roughly 1-5 degrees above
normal and minimal day to day temperature variations, placing us
squarely in the dog days of summer. If there`s any good news in
this it`s that monsoon moisture is expected to remain out of the
area through mid week. Unfortunately there are strong signals for
increasing moisture by Thursday and Friday next week with still
very strong high pressure aloft, so humidities are likely to be a
factor again.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0231Z.

At 0144Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1000 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 2600 feet with a temp of 29 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conds for KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF.

Low confidence in TAFs for KSBP, KSMX and KSBA. There is a
20-30% chance of low clouds at these sites, and in this case 40%
chance of LIFR conds overnight. Any cigs that form may be short-
lived.

Low to moderate confidence in KOXR, KCMA and the LA Coastal
sites. If low clouds affect these sites, IFR to LIFR conds are
likely. The timing could be off by at least +/- 2 hours, and CIGs
could form and dissipate at times between around 06Z to 15Z.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. The timing of
flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours from TAF, and lowest
cigs may be off +/- 200 feet. No significant east wind component
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conds expected.

&&

.MARINE...31/916 PM.

For the Outer Waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and seas
will continue through this weekend before beginning to subside
early next week. Winds will generally peak at around 30 knots but
occasional gusts to 35 knots will be possible, mainly during the
evening hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, there is an 60-80%
chance of SCA winds during the afternoon/evening hours, decreasing
to a 30% chance starting Sunday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40%
chance of SCA winds each afternoon and evening through this
weekend over the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel.

Seas of 7-10 feet will impact the outer waters into this weekend,
due to a combination of long-period southerly swell from a
distant tropical cyclone and shorter- period northwesterly
swell/wind- waves caused by the moderate to locally strong NW
winds. As a result, steep, hazardous seas will be common,
especially over the outer waters, extending to nearshore waters
off the Central Coast.

&&

.BEACHES...31/917 PM.

Distant Tropical Cyclone Genevieve is generating S-SE swells that
will continue to affect the beaches into this weekend. A High
Surf Advisory remains in effect for the south facing beaches of
LA County, with a Beach Hazards Statement for the Ventura Coast
northward to the Central Coast. In LA County, in spite of lower
wave heights, south facing beaches are still seeing frequent,
strong, and hazardous rip currents. For Ventura County (and SBA
South Coast) surf heights are low enough and rip currents are mainly
moderate. Further north, strong rip currents are likely along the
south to southwest facing beaches of the Central Coast.

Use extra caution if you are at the beach, and be sure to ask
lifeguards if and where it is safe to swim.

Please reference the Coastal Hazard Message (CFWLOX) for details
on High Surf and Beach Hazards Statements. Dangerous rip currents
will be of particular concern this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...31/833 PM.

Today through at least Sunday, widespread elevated to brief
critical conditions will be common away from immediate coasts due
to very hot, dry, and locally breezy conditions with an increased
risk for large plume dominated fire behavior and rapid fire
growth due to deep mixing heights. For today and Sunday, mixing
heights of 10,000 to 14,000 feet are expected across the interior,
peaking on Saturday at 12,000 to 16,000 feet. If any fire
ignitions occur across the interior, these deeper mixing heights
allow for large vertical plume growth, especially in the mountains
and foothills, where Live Fuel moisture levels are approaching
critical levels.

Other factors that will add to the fire weather risk across the
interior today through Sunday, will be locally breezy southwest to
north winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph, which could
increase by another 5 mph by Sunday afternoon/evening as onshore
flow increases, as well as widespread and long duration single
digit humidities. As a result, expecting at least a few hours
of wind/RH overlap to reach brief critical fire weather
conditions across many interior areas through the weekend, and a
few isolated mountain and Antelope Valley foothill locations
could reach 6+ hour durations of wind/RH overlap. In addition,
there will be very poor to poor overnight humidity recoveries,
especially in the mountains and foothills where some locations may
continue to have humidities in the teens.

Very warm and dry conditions will also impact southwest Santa
Barbara County, with weak Sundowner winds likely (with gusts 25 to
40 mph from Gaviota to San Marcos Pass) this evening and Saturday
evening, with humidities falling to between 15 and 25 percent.
Very warm and dry conditions will likely persist much of next week
across the interior, likely leading to more elevated to brief
critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones
      38-88-343>345-351>353-355>358-368>376-378-379-381>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through this afternoon for
      zones 340-346-349-350-354-356. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT Sunday for zones
      341-342-347>350-354-362-366-367-377-380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 5 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Phillips/Ciliberti
MARINE...Ciliberti/KL
BEACHES...Ciliberti
FIRE...Gomberg
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office