911
FXUS66 KLOX 181057
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
357 AM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...17/821 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected into the weekend, though a
cooling trend will begin Sunday as a low pressure system
approaches. Rain chances will begin as early as Monday night along
the Central Coast and Tuesday in Los Angeles.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...18/355 AM.

Another warm day is expected today, with temperatures increasing
by a few degrees compared to yesterday, though high clouds in the
area may somewhat moderate daytime heating. Highs will be about 6
to 12 degrees above normal, with widespread highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Below advisory level east winds (25 to 35 mph
gusts) are expected to redevelop across the typical Santa Ana Wind
Prone areas of LA and Ventura Counties through this morning.
These winds and a generally warmer airmass aloft will yield the
modest warming trend for today.

Sunday and Monday, temperatures will cool a couple degrees each
day, as a cutoff low approaches the region. 500 mb heights are
expected to fall and onshore flow will increase to moderate
strength during the afternoon. Marine layer stratus is likely to
increase at this time as well. As the center of the low travels
farther south along the California Coast, light rain will become
possible for northwestern San Luis Obispo County Monday evening,
with chances spreading south to Santa Barbara County Monday night.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...17/206 PM.

Still lots of uncertainty with the details of the incoming cutoff
low. Rain chances remain quite high, 70-80% north and 40-60%
south, but timing and amounts are still very much in question. The
best chance of rain is Tuesday, but could be as early as late
Monday along the Central Coast, and rain chances could linger as
late as Wednesday night. The hangup in the forecast hinges on the
speed of the approaching low and how far south it ultimately
drops. With cutoff lows this this is a very difficult task 3-4
days out. While most of the ensemble solutions keep rain amounts
south of Pt Conception under a half inch and under and inch in the
north, there are some solutions for the Central Coast as high as
2 inches. That would likely require the low to drop much farther
than most of the ensembles are suggesting creating a colder and
more unstable air mass aloft that could generate heavier showers
and possible thunderstorms. It`s likely that confidence in this
forecast will remain very low through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...18/0629Z.

At 06Z at KLAX, there was a surfaced based inversion up to 1500
feet with a maximum temperature of 21 degrees.

High confidence for TAFs, except moderate confidence for KLAX and
KLGB that may (10-20% chance) see brief MVFR conditions after
12Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a slight (10%) chance
of MVFR conditions from 13Z to 16Z. East wind component of 4 to 8
kt possible until 12Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...18/356 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds today,
followed by lighter winds through Sunday. An approaching cold
front has a small chance of producing SCA-level southerly winds,
along with a chance of showers between Monday evening and Tuesday
morning. Wednesday into Wednesday night, increasing NW flow is
forecast, with a good chance of SCA level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, fairly
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels,
however an approaching cold front will bring increasing southerly
winds, along with a chance for showers between Monday evening and
Tuesday morning. Increasing NW winds expected Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with SCA winds possible by the evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. From Point Mugu to Malibu there
is a a low chance (10%) of SCA gusts nearshore below any
canyons/passes this morning. This afternoon through Tuesday,
moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
criteria for all southern Inner Waters. Winds will begin to
increase of Tuesday from the NW, with SCA speeds possible by
Wednesday afternoon or evening

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office