321
FXUS65 KPSR 011711
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1011 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.UPDATE...18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will bring more record high temperatures across the area
  with lower desert highs mostly in the lower to mid 90s.

- A series of weather systems will bypass the region to the north
  through the rest of the week leading to cooler but still above
  normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND MONDAY/...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will again affect the region today
as the upper level ridge with near record climo heights continues
to dominate. NBM forecast highs for today are basically identical
to yesterday, but once again some high clouds may keep some
locations from reaching forecast highs. Either way, all lower
desert locations should top 90 degrees with the warmest readings
into the mid 90s across southwest Arizona and southeast
California.

While the ridge will remain in place across the Desert Southwest
today, a Pacific low pressure system off the California coast will
finally move inland tonight. The track of this system is still
shown to mainly miss our region to the north Monday into early
Tuesday, but it will easily be enough to displace the ridge to our
southeast starting Monday. Despite mostly passing by to our north
it will help to bring some increased winds Monday with gusts up
to around 25 mph while also beginning a modest cooling trend. The
main portion of the cooler air mass will hold off until Monday
night into Tuesday, so highs Monday will still be near 90 degrees
for the lower deserts. As a result, the NBM shows a 70%
probability of Phoenix breaking the record high of 90 degrees on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The early week system is expected to move to our northeast on
Tuesday allowing for a bit more cooler air to move in from the
northwest pushing daytime highs down into the mid 80s. The weather
pattern through mid-week will remain quite progressive with a
shortwave ridge passing through on Wednesday followed by broad
troughing setting up by Thursday. Temperatures will remain well
above normal on Wednesday and likely even into Thursday with highs
still topping 80 degrees across all of the lower deserts.

Once the broad troughing pattern sets up over the Western U.S.
late week, it should again lead to increased winds across the
region but dry air will remain in place. Guidance is still
struggling to come to a good consensus with the eventual
evolution of a main shortwave trough that is likely to drop
southward through the Great Basin into or near our region by next
weekend. Guidance mostly agrees the trough will deepen Friday
into Saturday somewhere across our region, but there is much
higher uncertainty with how long the low will stick around and
whether or not there will be enough moisture to bring back any
rain chances. The cooling trend should at least continue Friday
into the weekend with highs likely dropping into the upper 70s at
some point.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under passing high cirrus cloud decks
can be expected throughout the period. Winds will exhibit the
typical diurnal tendencies with overall speeds aob 10 kts.
Periods of light variability and calm conditions can be expected,
especially during the diurnal transitions. A few gusts into the
mid to upper teens out of the west cannot be ruled this evening
into the overnight hours at KIPL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will continue through the middle of the week
as well-above normal temperatures cool slightly as the weather
pattern begins to shift. Minimum afternoon humidity levels through
at least the middle of the week will run between 10-15%, while
overnight recoveries will be 30-50%. Wind speeds will largely
remain under 15 mph with modest afternoon upslope gusts 20-25 mph
becoming common. The strongest gusts would be expected Monday and
late in the week. Overall conditions will be favorable for early
spring prescribed burning operations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily High Temperature Records:

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
3/1   89 (2016)   93 (1986)   91 (2016)
3/2   90 (2016)   94 (1910)   92 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero/Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office